Economic Growth Decelerates To 3.10%

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Nigerian EconomyNigeria’s economic growth slumps to 3.10% in the year 2022 from 3.40% in 2021, latest gross domestic (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The decline was dragged by poor performance in the oil sector.

According to the statistics office, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.52% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022, following a growth of 2.25% in the third quarter of 2022.  The rate of growth decelerated when compared with the 3.98% reported in the fourth quarter of 2021.

NBS said the performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.69% and contributed 56.27% to the aggregate GDP.

Although the Agriculture sector grew by 2.05% in the reference period, the Statistics Office said its performance was significantly hampered by severe incidences of flood experienced across the country, accounting for lesser growth relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 which was 3.58%.

The fourth quarter report indicated that the Industry sector was yet challenged recording -0.94% growth and contributing less to the aggregate GDP relative to the third quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2021.

Overall, the annual GDP growth rate in 2022 stood at 3.10%, from the 3.40% reported in 2021. Thus, the performance of agriculture and Industry reduced in 2022 relative to 2021, while the performance of the Services sector improved in 2022.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N56,757,889.95 million in nominal terms.

This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 which recorded aggregate GDP of N49,276,018.23 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 15.18%, according to NBS.

Oil Sector

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.34 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.50mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.16mbpd.

However, the record showed that the Q4 volume was higher than the third quarter of 2022 production volume of 1.20 mbpd by 0.14mbpd

According to NBS, the real growth of the oil sector was negative 13.38% year-on-year in Q4 2022 indicating a decrease of 5.33% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021.

It said growth increased by 9.29% points when compared to Q3 2022 which was –22.67%.  On quarterly comparison, the oil sector slumped by 4.93% in Q4 2022. However, on annual basis, oil sector performance declined 19.22% compared to the -8.30% recorded in 2021.

Thus, the Oil sector contributed 4.34% to the total real GDP in Q4 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.19% and 5.66% respectively.  The total annual contribution of oil to aggregate GDP in 2022 was 5.67%.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 4.44% in real terms in Q4-2022. NBS stated that this rate was lower by 0.29% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021 and 0.18% points higher than the third quarter of 2022.

This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2022 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Trade; Agriculture (Crop Production); Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions).

It was supported by Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate and Construction, accounting for positive GDP growth.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.66% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021 which was 94.81% and higher than the third quarter of 2022 recorded as 94.34%. Moreover, on aggregate 94.33% was contributed in 2022, higher than the 92.76% reported in 2021.


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